LFP battery costs?
Posted on September 26, 2024 September 26, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy. LFP batteries: cathode glow? LFP batteries are fundamentally different from incumbent NMC cells: 2x more stable, 2x longer-lasting, $15/kWh cheaper reagents, $5/kWh cheaper manufacturing, and $25/kWh cheaper again when made in China. This 15-page report argues LFP will
Energy transition: classic blunders?!
Posted on December 11, 2024 December 11, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy. Energy transition: classic blunders?! Classic blunders famously include "never start a land war in Asia" and "never go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line". But this video sets out what we believe are the three classic blunders that should be avoided by
Can GDP decouple from energy demand?
Some commentators argue that energy demand will naturally plateau as GDP rises in the future – or at least the beta between energy use and GDP will fall dramatically. As evidence, the energy consumption within developed world countries has hardly increased over the past 20-years, even as GDP per capita rose by 25%.
US power generation under development over time?
This data-file captures the development pipeline of new US power capacity, based on 860M reports from the EIA, which cover all existing and proposed generating units of >1MW of greater.As a leading indicator for wind, solar, gas turbine and battery demand, we have aggregated the data in these c110 monthly reports, from 2015 to 2024, to track the pipeline
India electricity demand and power grid capacity
But the shift to coal is higher, as the utilization rates of coal plants also stepped up from 53% in 2019 to 68% in 2023.Thus coal fired generation has grown at a 1.5% pa CAGR over the past five years. If anything, high utilization rates at existing coal plants may augur for a step-up in construction for coal-fired generators, per our coal outlook.
Russia conflict: pain and suffering?
This 13-page on note presents 10 hypotheses on Russia''s conflict implications in energy markets. Energy supplies will very likely get disrupted, as Putin no longer needs to break the will of Ukraine, but also the West. Results include energy rationing and economic pain. Climate goals get shelved in this war-time scramble.
Solar plus batteries: the case for co-deployment?
There are many different reasons that might motivate the deployment of a grid-scale battery, as tabulated on page 2.The most common is at a grid node, for load shifting and power price arbitrage, in ever-steeper duck curves.. But interestingly, we have seen a different model gaining traction in 2022-24, which is co-deploying renewables plus batteries, as
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Thunder Said Energy | 2,631 followers on LinkedIn. The research consultancy for energy technologies | Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on energy technologies and energy transition. We publish research reports, data, economic models and patent screens into opportunities that can meet the energy needs of the world, while removing all of the net CO2.
Economic costs of data-centers?
If the data-center is computation heavy, e.g., for AI applications, this might equate to a cost of around $3/EFLOP of compute in 2023.This fits with disclosures from OpenAI, stating that training GPT 4 had a total compute of 60M EFLOPs and a training cost of around $160M.. However, new generations of chips from NVIDIA will increase the proportionate hardware costs and may
Energy crises: an overview from history?
This data-file tabulates the key features of a dozen energy crisis, caused by shortages of coal, oil, gas or electricity, since the start of the twentieth century; including the 1973-74 and 1979-80 oil shocks, UK coal miners'' strikes, Russia-Ukraine gas disputes, California electricity crisis. Most recently, price action in 2021-22 is not dissimilar from that of prior crises.
Energy transition research & technologies
We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including: The Energy Transition. Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050, with a CO2 price that averages $40/ton.
Global gas turbines by region and over time?
Hence as of 2024, the world has 2 TW of operating as turbines, of which 30% is in the US, 15% is in Europe, 40% is in other Asia, and around 5% is in both Africa and LatAm.Numbers are available in the data-file. Utilization rates of the world''s gas turbines provide another way to sense-check the historical data, peaking at 50% in 1999 on a global basis, then declining to
Blue hydrogen tightens global LNG?
World changing themes often emerge from niches, which initially seem peripheral, technical, easy to overlook (''the internet'' in the 1990s, ''sub prime mortgages'' in 2007, some strange new virus cases in January
Power demands of AI?
To contextualize the growth that lies ahead, we have compiled data on US power generation installations, year by year, technology by technology, running back to 1950, including implications for turbine manufacturers, on pages 14-16.. The impacts of AI on US gas and power markets sharply accelerate US electricity demand, upgrade our US shale forecasts, especially
Energy research in the age of AI?
We have spent much of 2024 writing about the rise of AI, and how it will change the energy industry: unlocking new step-changes in industrial efficiency, next-gen DAC or autonomous vehicles; while re-exciting gas generation, compounding grid bottlenecks, wolfing up grids'' spare capacity, boosting fiber-optics, industrial cooling, transformers and harmonic filters.
Gas turbine outlook?
25% of global electricity came from burning 150bcfd of natural gas in 2023, generating 6,750 TWH of electricity from a fleet of 1.9 TW of gas turbines. The basic functioning, cost and efficiency of a typical gas turbine are described on pages 2-3.. Our goal in this report is to forecast the market for gas turbines through 2030.To predict the future, however, it is first
Downloads Insights
In 2010, before the Fukushima crisis, Japan produced 292 TWH of nuclear electricity, which would have required about 40MTpa of LNG imports if it had all been generated by gas instead.. With all its nuclear plants shut down in 2011-12, LNG imports jumped by around 20MTpa, while the remaining shortfall was covered by ramping oil-fired power back upwards by c600kbpd.
Power grid bottlenecks?
Posted on March 7, 2024 March 11, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy. Power grids: the biggest bottleneck in the world? Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And power grid bottlenecks could last a decade.
Latest Ideas in the Energy Transition
The energy uplifts from solar trackers have been estimated at 10-50% in different studies. But we can do better than this broad range, and actually calculate both the energy uplift and the revenue uplift from first principles, on pages 5-8. The economics of solar trackers can therefore be modeled more effectively.
What drives global oil demand?
Posted on August 22, 2024 August 23, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy. Oil demand: making millions? What does it take to move global oil demand by 1Mbpd? This 22-page note ranks fifteen themes, based on their costs and possible impacts, to show what drives global oil demand, where risks lie for oil markets, and where opportunities are greatest to
Industry Research
Human civilization will consume 80,000 TWH of useful energy in 2023. This is equivalent to a kitchen toaster, running 24 hours per day, 365 days per year, for every man, woman and child on the planet. 35% of global energy is used in manufacturing and materials, 30% is used in transportation and shipping, 20% is used in homes as heat and electricity, and 15% is used in
Ten Themes for Energy in the 2020s
Posted on February 29, 2020 September 16, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy Ten Themes for Energy in the 2020s We presented our ''Top Ten Themes for Energy in the 2020s'' to an audience at Yale SOM, in February-2020.
Energy Transition Research Portal
This database contains a record of every company that has ever been mentioned across Thunder Said Energy''s energy transition research, as a useful reference for TSE''s clients. The database summarizes over 3,000 mentions of 1,400
Energy Technologies and Transition
We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including: The Energy Transition.Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050, with a CO2 price that averages $40/ton.. The Ascent of Renewables will deliver an enormous 30,000 TWH of energy by 2050, but this also requires overcoming vast bottlenecks, in metals,
Rob West, Thunder Said Energy, on What the Russia-Ukraine
Listen to Jason Mitchell talk to Rob West, CEO of Thunder Said Energy, about what''s at stake for the energy complex as we begin this diversification, the first and second order impacts of the conflict, and the trade-offs that we may face between
Thunder Said Energy Full Subscription
This purchase will enable your email account for the Thunder Said Energy full subscription. This gives you full access to all of our content — written research reports, downloadable data-files, economic models, patent analysis and company screens — for one calendar year.. Additional terms: All our content can be shared fully within your organization.
European shale: an overview?
Ukraine has the best shale resources in all of Europe: 4.5% TOC, 1.15% maturity (gas window), low clay and moderate over-pressure. Shell tested these rocks and obtained results good enough to sign a $10bn development agreement that could ramp output up to 20bcm per year.
Rob West, Thunder Said Energy, on What the Russia-Ukraine
Listen to Jason Mitchell talk to Rob West, CEO of Thunder Said Energy, about what''s at stake for the energy complex as we begin this diversification, the first Show A Sustainable Future, Ep Rob West, Thunder Said Energy, on What the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Means for the Energy Transition - 3 May 2022
Solar trackers: following the times?
The energy uplifts from solar trackers have been estimated at 10-50% in different studies. But we can do better than this broad range, and actually calculate both the energy uplift and the revenue uplift from first principles, on pages 5-8. The economics of solar trackers can therefore be modeled more effectively.
Global oil demand: rumors of my death?
We have compiled a database covering the entire global oil market, month by month, product by product, country by country, from 2017 through the end of 2021. We explain our database and some data quality issues on page 2. The COVID pandemic is quantified in oil market terms on page 3. Global oil demand fell -22Mbpd at trough in April-2020, -9Mbpd YoY
Energy transition: the triple challenge?
A common framework is to call the energy transition a "dual challenge". The first task is meeting the energy needs of human civilization. And the second task is abating the world''s CO2 emissions. But we increasingly think this framework is incomplete. Energy transition is a triple challenge. The third component is raising competitiveness.
New Energies Research
Today''s lithium ion batteries have an energy density of 200-300 Wh/kg. I.e., they contain 4kg of material per kWh of energy storage. Technology gains can see lithium ion batteries'' energy densities doubling to 500Wh/kg in the 2030s, trebling to 750 Wh/kg by the 2040s, and the best possible energy densities are around 1,250 Wh/kg.
A Sustainable Future: Rob West, Thunder Said Energy,
Jason Mitchell talks to Rob West, CEO of Thunder Said Energy, about whether the energy transition could lead to a full-blown energy crisis. May 2022 Will the energy transition — now complicated by the drive to diversify